Rhode Island (18-12) ends the Atlantic 10 season as the 10 seed, one spot ahead of their preseason projection. The Rams now get an immediate rematch with Fordham (11-20), whom they split the season series.
Rhode Island ended its regular season with an 86-67 win over last-place Fordham. For Rhode Island, this win snapped a four-game losing streak. Fordham extended their losing streak to eight, double the second-longest streak in the A-10. Thiswas the season’s second meeting between these two teams, both programs winning at home. They’ll play in a neutral site at the Capital One Arena for the A-10 Tournament.
Over the past few years, the A-10 Tournament has been a total disaster for Rhode Island. Under head coach Archie Miller, Rhode Island is 0-2 in the A-10 Tournament, and the program hasn’t secured a first-round bye since 2021. The Rams still didn’t win a game that year, as they fell to Dayton in the second round. Since 2020, Rhode Island has been 1-4 in the conference tournament, with its lone win coming in 2022 against a Duquesne team that was an abysmal 1-16 in A-10 play.
Miller’s failure to succeed late into the season has been well-documented by the Rhode Island faithful. The former standout coach at Dayton has taken the reins of a not-so-prestigious record. Miller is just 17-36 in the conference, the worst three-year start by any Rhode Island coach in the program’s 76 years spent playing in a conference. More relevant numbers might be Miller’s 6-24 record in February and March, two of those 24 losses coming from the A-10 Tournament. In Miller’s first season, the Rams lost to the higher-seeded La Salle. The next season, Rhode Island lost by three points to the lower-seeded Saint Louis Billikens; at the time, Saint Louis had an interim head coach.
This year marked a turning point for Rhode Island in the Miller era. An 11-1 non-conference record helped keep the Rams in the middle of the pack in terms of winning percentage. However, this improvement still isn’t enough in the eyes of the fans, and a tournament win or two has become the expectation. So, can Miller and his Rams finally get over the hump? They really, really should. It’s difficult to imagine they’ll have a path this easy for a long time.
Scouting Fordham
The path begins with the aforementioned rematch with Fordham. The last time Rhode Island played a team three times in a single season was La Salle during Miller’s first season in Kingston. That year is very similar to our current times. The Rams and the Explorers split at home, and then the Explorers won when it mattered.
It’s worth noting that this year’s Fordham team is much worse than that La Salle team that took two of three from Rhode Island. For starters, the 2022-23 La Salle Explorers won four more conference games and four more away games. This season, Fordham is 3-12 away from home, Rhode Island isn’t much better at 4-9, but Rhode Island is 3-0 in neutral site games, including a win over Temple (16-14).
When only using the 18-game sample from A-10 league play, these two teams are very similar outside of a few categories. Most notably, these are the two worst defenses in the A-10 in terms of points allowed per game, with Rhode Island allowing 76.7 and Fordham 80.3. These are the only two teams in the A-10 to allow 90 points multiple times. Rhode Island has allowed 80 or more points in 10 of its last 14 games after not allowing 80 points in regulation for its first 16 games.
The lone defensive stats where the two teams aren’t within a spot of each other are field goal percentage allowed and steals per game. During their A-10 schedule, Fordham allowed opponents to shoot 48.1%, the worst mark in the conference by a margin of 0.14%. Rhode Island allows opponents to shoot 44.6%, which is good for 10th in the A-10. Rhode Island allowed Fordham to shoot 4% better than their season average in their first battle. However, in its rematch in the Ryan Center, Rhode Island held Fordham to 34.9% from the field. Fordham allowed the Rams to shoot above their season averages in both games.
Where Fordham does have the edge is steals per game, something Rhode Island has really struggled with this season. Fordham is coming away with 7.3 steals per game, while Rhode Island allows 7.9 per game. In both games, Fordham won the turnover battle.
Turnovers have been a major issue for both Rams. These two teams rank at the bottom of the A-10 in assist-to-turnover ratio. Only three schools in the A-10 have an assist-to-turnover ratio below one; both schools and George Mason (24-7) make up that list.
Rhode Island does hold one major advantage over Fordham, and it’ll likely lead the Keaney Blue Rams to victory. Rhode Island has the second most efficient offense in the A-10, shooting 46% from the field. On the other hand, Fordham is shooting 40.7%, the third-worst mark in the A-10. This discrepancy was on full display this past Saturday as Rhode Island shot nearly 50% from the field in the first half while Fordham couldn’t even crack 35.5%. Due to their ineffectiveness, Fordham’s longest run was 7-0, and anyone who’s watched a Rhode Island game this season will tell you that preventing a run is crucial to the team’s confidence and, in turn, the constant communication on defense. Once that communication breaks down, Rhode Island rarely puts it back together, thus the poor defense over the past three months.
Given the stats and the two previous matches between these two schools, it’s clear that Rhode Island has the advantage. If Rhode Island can stay efficient on the offensive end, protect the ball, and keep Fordham from going on any long run, thenit should be a comfortable win for Miller and Rhode Island.
Win and face George Washington
If Rhode Island moves on, they’ll face George Washington (20-11) in the second round. The Revolutionaries beat the Rams 85-67 in their lone regular-season battle. It was Rhode Island’s first home loss of the season. George Washington is 5-6 on the road this year and 2-1 in neutral-site games. The Revs’ best wins of the season include a 20-point thumping of Dayton (22-9) and a 10-point win at St. Bonaventure (21-10).
Fourth-year Providence transfer Rafael Castro spearheads the Revs’ offense. During the season, Castro averaged 13.9 points per game and 9.3 rebounds per game. Against the Rams, Castro had 16 points and four rebounds, along with two steals and a block. It was a game where the Revs struggled again from beyond the arc. It’s been the Revs’ biggest struggle this season, shooting just 30.2% from deep on the season, the second worst in the A-10.
Efficient offense, 3-point shooting and limiting turnovers will again be the path to victory for the Rams. The Revs lead the A-10 in steals per game with 8.8 per game, which ranks 18th in the nation. As previously mentioned, the Rams have struggled mightily in the turnover battle this season and have often lost total control of a game rather quickly because of this weakness. In fact, in the lone meeting between these two teams, the Revs had 10 more points off turnovers than the Rams. However, the Rams have recently become much more dominant in the paint; even during their losing streak, the Rams often outscored their opponent in the paint.
The first battle between these two teams was even at 48 paint points, but Rhode Island was without second-year David Fuchs. This season, Fuchs hasn’t just taken a step forward in his ability to defend the paint because he’s become the most efficient rebounder in the A-10 with a league-leading rebound rate of 20.4%. So, with the knowledge gained from their first battle and the addition of the Fuchs, the Rams are set to be more equal with the Revs than they were in their first battle. Yet, this will still be an uphill battle for Rhode Island as George Washington’s defensive strengths play right into the weaknesses that have derailed many of Rhode Island’s A-10 battles.
The winner of this second-round match will move on to face George Mason, co-champions of the A-10 regular season. This season, the Patriots have been a defensive juggernaut, allowing 63.1 points per game, the 11th-best in the nation. It’ll take a lot for Rhode Island to get to that point and even more for the Rams to escape with a win. The two programs split the season series, yet George Mason embarrassed the Rams while Rhode Island escaped at home after fourth-year Sebastian Thomas made one of his five game-winning shots.
The A-10 tournament will start at 11:30 a.m. ET Wednesday between No. 13 seed Richmond (10-21) and No. 12 seed Davidson (12-19). The Rams tip off against Fordham at 2 p.m. ET, with the game televised on the USA Network.
