It’s now the third week of February, the bubble watch is heating up. We are reaching a point in the season where some teams are seeing their bubble chances rapidly diminish while others are earning wins that could catapult them to the right side of the bubble.
Each Wednesday (Thursday for this week only) leading up to Selection Sunday, I’ll update the Mid-Major Basketball Bubble Watch. While this could be a lean year for teams meeting the criteria, here’s where things currently stand.
(NET rankings are based on Wednesday’s standings.)
American
Locks: Memphis
Should be In: None
Work to Do: None
At this point, Memphis is the only team in the American Athletic Conference positioned to receive an at-large bid. Any other teams reaching the Big Dance will likely do so as a result of Memphis losing in the conference tournament.
Atlantic 10
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: VCU, George Mason
After losing to Saint Louis in late January, VCU (No. 33 in NET) has won four straight, including a key road victory at Dayton — though not as impactful as it would have been last season. Meanwhile, George Mason is one of the hottest teams in college basketball, riding an 11-game winning streak. On Saturday, the Patriots will put their streak on the line in a road matchup against the Rams, which would be a resume-boosting Quad 1 victory.
Missouri Valley
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: Drake
Drake had a prime opportunity to secure a major victory over Bradley at home on Sunday but fell short. The result? The Bulldogs will likely need to win the Missouri Valley tournament in St. Louis to earn a bid.
Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be In: Utah State, New Mexico
Work to Do: San Diego State, Boise State
The Mountain West has been action-packed with thrilling games with significant bubble implications. Just as it seemed time to add the conference’s first lock, madness ensued.
New Mexico swept Utah State after holding serve at The Pit on Sunday. Then, on Tuesday, Boise State took down the same Lobos team that had just beaten the Aggies, keeping them in the “Should Be In” category.
For San Diego State, this upcoming stretch may be the most critical for any mid-major team. The Aztecs face Utah State on the road Saturday, followed by a home matchup against New Mexico on Tuesday—two games that could determine their postseason fate.
West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Should be In: None
Work to Do: San Francisco, Santa Clara
With Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s safely in the field, the main question is whether the West Coast Conference will land a third at-large team. Both San Francisco and Santa Clara have flirted with bubble positioning.
At the moment, Santa Clara has the stronger case, with a higher NET ranking (No. 55) and two Quad 1 wins. However, both teams will get a late-season shot at Gonzaga, providing an opportunity for a resume-boosting victory.
Other Conferences
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: UC San Diego
Among smaller mid-major conferences, UC San Diego (No. 42 NET) appears to be the only team with a realistic shot at an at-large bid. The Tritons boast two Quad 1 wins, including one over Utah State, which has been a mid-major darling all season.
Would the selection committee grant UC San Diego a spot if it falls short in the Big West tournament? Possibly. However, the safest route is to win the conference tournament and punch an automatic ticket to what would be the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance.
