It’s now the second week of February, and teams are in different areas across the spectrum. Some have already secured their NCAA Tournament bids, while for others, the next few weeks will determine their March Madness fate.
Each Wednesday leading up to Selection Sunday, I’ll update the Mid-Major Basketball Bubble Watch. While this could be a lean year for teams meeting the criteria, here’s where things currently stand.
(NET rankings are based on Tuesday’s standings.)
American
Locks: Memphis
Should be In: None
Work to Do: North Texas
Not much has changed here. Should the Tigers not win the American Athletic Conference Tournament in March,Memphis is already a lock for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. North Texas remains a long shot to enter the bubble conversation, still lacking a Quad 1 win with no opportunities to secure one in the coming weeks.
Atlantic 10
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: VCU, George Mason
The enigma of the Atlantic 10 continues, with two teams appearing to have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid. VCU remains in the NET top 40 despite a lack of Quad 1 victories, while George Mason keeps winning but faces an uphill climb with a NET ranking of 64.
Missouri Valley
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: Drake
After losing three of its last four games, Bradley is out of at-large consideration. That leaves one remaining hopeful: the Drake Bulldogs. They continue to win and sit within the NET top 60, boasting two Quad 1 victories. If they win out until the MVC Championship Game, who knows? Still, this conference will likely send only one team — its tournament champion — to the NCAA Tournament.
Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be In: Utah State, New Mexico
Work to Do: San Diego State, Boise State
New Mexico has been one of the hottest teams in college basketball, winning six straight games, including a statement victory over Utah State to begin the month. The rematch comes this Saturday with major implications. If Utah State wins, it likely secures a lock designation. If New Mexico pulls off the sweep, it strengthens its at-large case. Meanwhile, San Diego State and Boise State remain in the mix as the conference pushes for four tournament bids.
West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Should be In: None
Work to Do: None
Last week, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s officially moved into the lock category. This week, Santa Clara and San Francisco entered the conversation. Santa Clara missed a marquee win over Saint Mary’s but has a crucial home matchup against Gonzaga in a few weeks. Meanwhile, San Francisco, which handed Saint Mary’s its first conference loss last Thursday, faces Gonzaga twice — starting with tomorrow’s matchup.
Other Conferences
Locks:
Should be In:
Work to Do: UC Irvine, UC San Diego, McNeese
The second battle between UC San Diego and UC Irvine ended with the Tritons securing Quad 1 victory No. 2 in an 85-67 win over the Anteaters on Saturday. In the process, they also saw their NET ranking sitting at 49 as of Tuesday. Will it be enough to secure an at-large bid if they can continue their winning ways? Probably not. The best we can hope for is a third matchup between the teams in the Big West Championship game, with the winner going dancing, as both can win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
