Rhode Island (11-1) wrapped up its non-conference schedule on Dec. 21 at the Hall of Fame Classic with an 85-79 win over Temple (7-5). The 11-1 non-conference record is their best since 2007-08, when the Rams went 14-1, followed by a 7-9 record in the Atlantic 10.
Heading into the season, many believed that the A-10 could send three teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. That year, Rhode Island earned an at-large bid after finishing 25-7 and received the seventh seed in the Midwest region. The Rams took down Trae Young and Oklahoma in the first round before falling to Duke in the second round.
So, how does this year’s Rhode Island team compare to 2018? This year’s Rams played a much weaker non-conference schedule compared to 2018. Of their 12 games, only one was a true road game, which the Rams lost to Brown in double overtime.
In terms of quality opponents, the Rams have played one Quad 2 team in Providence (7-6), and with the struggles the Friars have faced this season, it’s possible they could become a Quad 3 team. Rhode Island currently sits at 71 in NET Rating, and of all the teams ranked in the top 100, Rhode Island’s strength of schedule ranks as the weakest at 350 out of 364. In the KenPom ratings, the Rams are sitting at 89, which could be much higher if not for their weak strength of schedule.
Individually, the 2018 Rams had two players averaging over 10 points per game, four players averaging five rebounds per game, but only one player shooting over 40% from 3. This year’s Rams have five players averaging more than 10 points per game, five players averaging four or more rebounds per game, and two players shooting over 40% from 3.
La Salle (8-5) is the only other team in the A-10 that has five players scoring 10-plus points per game. Rhode Island’s roster is full of depth, allowing them to take advantage of any advantage they have against an opponent. Teams with weak transition defenses have struggled to contain the A-10’s leader in assists per game, fourth-year Sebastian Thomas. Against teams that lack size, fifth-year Javonte Brown has dominated the paint, scoring 15-plus points four times. When opponents lack strong defenders on the bench, fourth-year Jaden House takes advantage. House has four games with 15-plus points and has taken a step forward regarding defensive effort.
This dynamic roster was picked to finish 11th in the A-10 coaches’ preseason poll; now, they look positioned to make a real run at their first A-10 title since 2018.
So, how does the rest of the A-10 look?
In the first few weeks of the season, the A-10 looked strong, with Loyola Chicago (9-4) starting 8-0. Since then, the Ramblers have dropped three of their last four. That immediate drop-off for the Ramblers is directly correlated to the ankle injury to third-year guard Jayden Dawson; he is aiming to return before the Rams and Ramblers face off on the hardwood on Jan. 15. Dawson isn’t the only Rambler dealing with an injury as third-year Justin Moore suffered a season-ending injury. Third-year Kymany Houinsou will likely miss another three weeks. If all goes well for the Ramblers, they should be near full strength when this big-time A-10 clash goes down.
Following the Rams trip to Chicago, they return home to host Davidson (10-3). Like Rhode Island, Davidson was expected to finish near the bottom of the A-10, as evidenced by their spot at 12 on the A-10 preseason poll. Their schedule had four Q2 or better opponents due to the Wildcats’ appearance at Battle 4 Atlantis. In those four games, the Wildcats went 1-3. Davidson features an incredible three-headed scoring monster of Reed Bailey, Connor Kochera and Bobby Durkin.
These three players are averaging more than 15 points per game, more than four rebounds per game, and dishing out multiple assists per game. They are likely the best all-around trio in the A-10 during the non-conference portion of the season. As a team, they shoot 36.5% from 3, second in the A-10. However, their 35 rebounds a game rank second to last. Other notable statistical rankings include Davidson’s 10 turnovers per game, only behind Dayton.
The A-10 squad closest to the Rams in NET Rating is the other Rams, VCU (10-3). They currently rank 13th in the Mid-Major Basketball poll and 69th in NET, and 47th in KenPom, despite not having any Q1 or Q2 wins. This is largely due to VCU’s stellar defense, which ranks ninth in defensive rating, according to KenPom. The VCU defense ranks in the top three in the A-10 for every major defensive stat category besides free throws allowed per game.
If this team can limit the fouls, their defense could lead them to an A-10 title with some offensive help from Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga. The two are averaging around 17 points per game despite Bamisile having very poor shooting splits. As for Shulga’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), it is the best in the A-10 at 25.1; the next closest sits at 21.4.
St. Bonaventure (12-1) has been one of the best teams in the A-10 with two Q2 wins and its lone loss against a Q1 opponent. Adrian Wojnarowski’s addition has done wonders for this program, and he hasn’t even been there for a full year.
Since the Rams will host the Bonnies, this would likely be a Q2 opponent and an important game for the Rams’ resume when Selection Sunday rolls around. Statistically, the Rams look better than the Bonnies, but you’ll see some indicators that might say otherwise when you look under the hood. St. Bonaventure features the best scoring defense in the A-10, which is impressive when you consider their 2-1 record against teams that are Q2 or better.
While their offense might be lacking, they feature the star power necessary to beat any A-10 opponent on any given day. Led by two fourth-years, Chance Moore and Melvin Council Jr., these two are the second and third most efficient players in the A-10 based on PER. Their more difficult schedule and two Q2 wins have the Bonnies within the top 60 in NET Rating and top 80 in KenPom.
Two of the more underrated teams in the A-10 this season seem to be St. Joseph’s (9-4) and George Mason (9-4). Both teams rank top in the 100s in NET Rating and sit next to one another in KenPom at 87 and 88.
St. Joe’s is just one of two A-10 teams with a win over a Q1 opponent this season, a 78-77 win over Texas Tech. Like Davidson, St. Joe’s features a group of scorers, all averaging over 15 points per game. Erik Reynolds II has built a legacy at St. Joe’s, and while his 3-point percentage is down, the law of averages indicates that Reynolds II will once again be first-team A-10.
George Mason is the best team that the Rams will play twice during their conference schedule. The Patriots have the best defense regarding field goal percentage allowed and the best 3-point percentage allowed. Those stats, along with their ability to rebound the ball, make the Patriots a formidable team in the A-10 this season. Offensively, the Patriots excel in free throw shooting, sitting at 41st in the nation with 17.4 made per game. Their leading scorer, fourth-year Darius Maddox, is scoring 14 points per game despite shooting 29.2% from beyond the arc.
All the aforementioned programs are looking up to one team, the Dayton Flyers. The Flyers sit well above any other A-10 team in all the notable college basketball rankings. Sitting at No. 4 on the Mid-Major Basketball Poll, ranked 40 in NET, 31 in KenPom, and No. 29 on the AP Poll, it’s clear that both the eye test and the statistics like what Dayton has shown this season.
The Flyers have wins against No. 11 UConn and No. 8 Marquette, as well as a five-point loss to No. 3 Iowa State. They have four players averaging over 10 points per game and are led by two fourth-year players. Enoch Cheeks leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game and rebounding with 7.4 per game. His co-star, Nate Santos, was preseason first-team A-10 and is scoring 13.8 points per game on 43.3% from 3.
As a team, the Flyers have the most efficient offense in the A-10, shooting 48.8% from the field. They also turn the ball over less than 10 times a game, the only team in the A-10 below that mark. The Flyers have the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the A-10 at 1.70; it’s one of the most efficient offenses in the nation.
If the Rams don’t excel against the top teams in the A-10, there is slim to no chance of them receiving an at-large bid as they did in 2018. It’s possible that they could still win the A-10 Tournament, and this team could likely be in the NIT come March. Any postseason play would mark a step in the right direction for a program that hasn’t posted a winning record since the 2019-20 season.
