As February arrives officially, teams are entering the critical phase of the season, where they make a final push before the conclusion of the regular season.
At the mid-major level, the reality is that the safest way to secure a spot in the tournament is by winning your conference championship (ask Indiana State last season, who sadly didn’t qualify). However, for a fortunate few with strong metrics, a handful of at-large bids are available to smaller programs with Cinderella potential.
Each Wednesday leading up to Selection Sunday, I’ll update the Mid-Major Basketball Bubble Watch. While this could be a lean year for teams meeting the criteria, here’s where things currently stand.
(Net Rankings are based off of Tuesday)
American
Locks: Memphis
Should be In: None
Work to Do: North Texas
At this point, Memphis is essentially locked into the field with five Quad 1 wins and many bracketologists projecting them as a four- or five-seed. North Texas, which currently holds a NET ranking of 58 but has no Quad 1 wins, is the only other team that could potentially help the conference secure a second bid, likely as a bid stealer similar to UAB, which has underperformed this year despite playing improved basketball.
Atlantic 10
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: VCU, Dayton
What was once a league expected to send two or three teams to the tournament now faces the prospect of being a one-bid league this year. Dayton earned several impressive Quad 1 wins in non-conference play but has since dropped its NET ranking to 74. Meanwhile, VCU remains a bubble team with a NET ranking of 37 but lacks a Quad 1 win.
Missouri Valley
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: Drake, Bradley
Remember the days when the Missouri Valley would get Wichita State and Creighton into the field, or Ben Jacobson had those great Northern Iowa programs? This year, it’s all about Bradley and Drake, who will likely both need an MVC Championship win in St. Louis to be a part of the Big Dance. And the Bulldogs have to be kicking themselves after an ugly loss to Murray State at home that tanked their NET ranking.
Mountain West
Locks:Â None
Should be In: Utah State
Work to Do: San Diego State, Boise State, New Mexico
Ah, yes. The Mountain West. The mid-major conference that saw six teams make the field last year. What will they do for an encore in 2025? At this point, we can add Utah State to the should be in position, with New Mexico, Boise State andSan Diego State all in contention to grab a spot. Buckle up! It’s going to be a wild ride down the stretch.
West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Should be In: None
Work to Do: None
The West Coast Conference is known for producing late-night matchups in central and eastern time zones, and Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are locked into the field. The key question now is whether Santa Clara, Oregon State, or San Francisco can secure that elusive third bid.
Other Conferences
Locks: None
Should be In: None
Work to Do: UC Irvine, UC San Diego, McNeese
As we ultimately progress into the conference tournament season, this part of the mid-major bubble watch will be filledwith teams who have locked up a spot by winning their championship. However, for now, it features teams that, while a long shot – still have a slight glimmer of hope for an at-large bid.
